☙ In 2018 bear it took between 9 and 10 months for the first MAs to inverse with the 20 dropping below the 50 . It took 7 months for BTC to touch the 100 . The
100 held strong as support until late 2018, nearly a year later, when price collapsed well below the 100 and 200 EMAs for a few weeks (lowest point of 2018 bear).
☙ In 2021 so far based on the current trend angles, we would see the 20 drop below the 50 no later than September (50% faster), earlier if we drop further (say to
$20k). Price action touching the 100 could come no later than October. (15% faster).
If the bottom of bear cycles the past two cycles averaged 300 days, and if we do confirm this is a bear and not a mid-cycle pause, we can speculate that the bottom of bear will come sooner. Its still a wide range, so we’ll want to revisit this and layer some other data here.. but some quick math-
Bottom Line: Instead of the historical average of 300 days to hit the bottom of bear, we might see it somewhere between 250 days and 150 days, which would place the bottom between mid September and mid December of 2021.